By Marty Schladen
Ohio Capital Journal
As voters go to the polls in Ohio today, they’ll cast ballots in one of the most expensive, closely watched elections in the United States.
Its outcome sits squarely in tossup territory and it could hardly be more consequential. It could make the difference in deciding whether President Donald Trump faces Democratic opposition from both houses of Congress.
Republicans currently control 53 U.S. Senate seats to the Democrats’ 45 — plus two independents who caucus with them. That means that if Democrats flip four seats, they’ll have an effective one-seat majority.
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If they only flip three, the Senate will be 50-50. But that leaves a Republican advantage because Vice President JD Vance of Ohio would cast tiebreaking votes.
The Ohio race pits incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Husted against former Democratic U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, who occupied an Ohio U.S. Senate seat for 18 years until he was unseated by Bernie Moreno in the same election that brought Trump a second term in 2024.
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Gov. Mike DeWine appointed then-Lt.Gov. Husted in early 2025 to fill the Senate seat that was vacated when Vance was elevated to the vice presidency.
Since then, Husted has mostly voted in support of Trump, backing the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, in support of the Iran War and in support of Trump’s tariffs.
However, Husted has, on occasion, opposed Trump. For example, Husted in June joined a handful of other Republicans in helping Democrats to defeat a Trump amendment that would have paid Trump allies — including Jan. 6, 2020 rioters — $1.8 billion.
Brown has attacked Husted for supporting Trump actions that have fed inflation. Husted has attacked Brown on his long political career and attempted to tie Brown to the most liberal members of his party.
Trump’s outsized presence looms over the race, and he has bled support in the Buckeye State.
Trump carried Ohio by 11 points in 2024.
According to a YouGov poll published in October, 57% of likely voters said they disapproved of the job he was doing. Moreover, 51% of Ohio likely voters said they strongly disapprove of Trump’s performance, the poll said.
Trump held three rallies in Ohio in October.
Until his loss to Moreno, Brown had a track record of winning in Ohio even as the state became progressively redder. As a U.S. representative, he defeated then-U.S. Sen. Mike DeWine in 2006 — another midterm year in which the Republican president was unpopular.
So from the time Brown entered the race this year, both parties had reason to know it would be a squeaker. They have spent accordingly.
With more than $500 million dropped on ads and ad reservations by the end of October, the Ohio U.S. Senate race is the second-most expensive this cycle and one of the 10 most expensive non-presidential races in U.S. history, The Hill reported last week.
And after the deluge of ads, the margins remain razor thin.
A poll aggregation in the Silver Bulletin, published by election and data analyst Nate Silver, showed Brown with an average lead of 3.1 percentage points as of Oct. 30.
In an era of notable polling misses, forecasters are cautious about who will win. Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the Cook Political Report, and Decision Desk HQ all rate the race a tossup.